Forex for a trader
How to win every forex trade

How to win every forex tradeThe "Sure-Fire" Forex Hedging Strategy. ( updated with a 2nd, and a 3rd lower-risk strategy, scroll down to bottom of the page! ) The forex trading technique below is simply. awesome. If you are able to look at a chart and identify when the market is trending , then you can make a bundle using the below technique. If we had to pick one single trading technique in the world, this would be the one! Make sure to use proper position sizing and money management with this one and you will encounter nothing but success! 1 - To keep things simple, let's assume there is no spread. Open a position in any direction you like. Example: Buy 0.1 lots at 1.9830. A few seconds after placing your Buy order, place a Sell Stop order for 0.3 lots at 1.9800. Look at the Lots. 2 - If the TP at 1.9860 is not reached, and the price goes down and reaches the SL or TP at 1.9770. Then, you have a profit of 30 pips because the Sell Stop had become an active Sell Order (Short) earlier in the move at 0.3 lots. 3 - But if the TP and SL at 1.9770 are not reached and the price goes up again, you have to put a Buy Stop order in place at 1.9830 in anticipation of a rise.

At the time the Sell Stop was reached and became an active order to Sell 0.3 lots (picture above), you have to immediately place a Buy Stop order for 0.6 lots at 1.9830 (picture below). 4 - If the price goes up and hits the SL or TP at 1.9860, then you also have a profit of 30 pips! 5 - If the price goes down again without reaching any TP, then continue anticipating with a Sell Stop order for 1.2 lots, then a Buy Stop order for 2.4 lots, etc. Continue this sequence until you make a profit. Lots: 0.1, 0.3, 0.6, 1.2, 2.4, 4.8, 9.6, 19.2 and 38.4. 6 - In this example, I've used a 306030 configuration (TP 30 pips, SL 60 pips and Hedging Distance of 30 pips). You can also try 153015, 6012060. Also, you can try to maximize profits by testing 306015 or 6012030 configurations. 7 - Now, considering the spread, choose a pair with a tight spread like EURUSD. Usually the spread is only around 2 pips. The tighter the spread, the more likely you will win. I think this may be a "Never Lose Again Strategy"! Just let the price move to anywhere it likes; you'll still make profits anyway. Actually the whole "secret" to this strategy (if there is any), is to find a "time period" when the market will move enough to guarantee the pips you need to generate a profit.

This strategy works with any trading method. (SEE COMMENTS BELOW)) Asian Breakout using Line-1 and Line-4. You can actually use any pip-range you want. You just need to know during which time period the market has enough moves to generate the pips you need. Another important thing is to not end up with too many open buy and sell positions as you may eventually run out of margin. COMMENTS: At this point, I hope that you can see the incredible possibilities that this strategy provides. To sum things up, you enter a trade in the direction of the prevailing intraday trend. I would suggest using the H4 and H1 charts to determine in which direction the market is going. Furthermore, I would suggest using the M15 or M30 as your trading and timing window. In doing this you will usually hit your initial TP target 90% of the time and your hedge position will never need to be activated. As mentioned in point 7 above, keeping spreads low is a must when using hedging strategies. But, also, learning how to take advantage of momentum and volatility is even more important. To achieve this, I would suggest looking at some of the most volatile currency pairs such as the GBPJPY, EURJPY, AUDJPY, GBPCHF, EURCHF, GBPUSD, etc. These pairs will give up 30 to 40 pips in a heartbeat. So, the lower the spread you pay for these pairs, the better. I would suggest looking for a forex broker with the lowest spreads on these pairs and that allows hedging (buying and selling a currency pair at the same time). As you can see from the picture above, trading Line 1 and Line 2 (10 pip price difference) will also result in a winning trade.

This method is extremely simple: 1. Just choose 2 price levels (High, Low, you decide) and a specific time (you decide), if you have a High breakout then buy, if you have a Low breakout then sell. TP=SL= (H-L). 2. Every time you experience a loss, increase the buysell lots in this numerical sequence: 1, 3, 6, 12, etc. If you choose your time and price range well, you will not need to activate this many trades. In fact, you will very rarely need to open more than one or two positions if you properly time the market. 3. Learning to take advantage of both volatility and momentum is key in learning to use this strategy. As I mentioned earlier, timing and the time period can be crucial for your success. Even though this strategy can be traded during any market session or time of day, it needs to be emphasised that when you do trade during off-hours or during lower volatility sessions, such as the Asian session, it will take longer to achieve your profit objective. Thus, it's always best to trade during the overlapping hours of the EuropeanLondon sessions andor the New York session. In addition, you should keep in mind that the strongest momentum usually occurs during the opening of any market session. Therefore, it's during these specific times that you will trade with a much higher probability of success. TIMING + MOMENTUM = SUCCESS! March 29, 2007 was a typical example of a dangerous day because the markets did not move much. The best way to overcome such a situation is to be able to recognize current market conditions and know when to stay out of them. Ranging, consolidating, and small oscillation markets will kill anyone if not recognized and traded properly (you should, in fact, avoid them like the plague!). However, having a good trading method to help you identify good setups will help you eliminate the need for multiple trade entries. In a way, this strategy will become a sort of insurance policy guaranteeing you a steady stream of profits.

If you learn to enter the markets at the right time (I sometimes wait for price to pullback or throwback a bit before jumping in), you will find that you will usually hit your initial TP target 90% of the time and price will not get anywhere close to your hedge order or your initial stop loss. In this case, the hedging strategy replaces the need for a normal stop loss and acts more as a guarantee of profits. The above examples are illustrated using mini-lots; however, as you become more comfortable and proficient with this strategy, you will gradually work your way up to trading standard lots. The consistency with which you will be making 30 pips any time you want will lead to the confidence necessary to trade multiple standard lots. Once you get to this level of proficiency, you profit potential is unlimited . Whether you realize it or not, this strategy will enable you to trade with virtually no risk. It's like having an ATM Debit Card to the World Bank. A variation of the strategy using a double martingale. This strategy is a bit different but is quite interesting as you still profit when you hit a stop loss! Using the below picture as an example, you would purchase 1 lot (indicated with B1) with the idea that it will rise. But you will also sell 1 lot (at S1, which is the same price as your buy price) at the same time, in case the price goes down. Then follow the diagram. When a martingale stops, the other one takes over.

This strategy can earn pips during periods where price is ranging. As your winning transactions only require an additional lot to be put into play, it doesn't really make much of a difference in relation to the other martingale. There is always a risk for the first martingale during ranging periods (flat consolidation periods), but this risk is mitigated by the pips you are earning from the second martingale! In the above example, on the EURUSD, you buy 1 microlot and sell 1 microlot at the same time, then, if the pair goes down 10 pips, you place an order to sell 3 microlots and buy 1 microlot. If the pair falls 10 pips, you've "won" and can start all over again. If the pair rises, however, then you will place a new buy order at 6 microlots and a sell order for 1 microlot, etc. The lot increments are: 1 microlot, 3 microlots, 6 microlots, 12 microlots, 24 microlots, etc., each time the price reverses direction against your heaviest weighted direction. And once you've "won", you start all over again (but avoid ranging markets, this technique is great for markets that display a genuine direction)! A lower-risk martingale strategy (my favorite of the 3 strategies on this page!) Here's what you do: if price is trending up, place a buy order for .1 lots (also place a Stop Loss at 29 pips and a Take Profit at 30 pips). At the same time place a Sell Stop order for .2 lots 30 pips below with a 29 pip SL and 30 pip TP. If the first position hits SL and second order is triggered, place a Buy Stop order 30 pips above your new order for .4 lots. Etc. Your order sizes will be .1.2.4.81.6etc. If ever your stop loss is hit and the new order has not been triggered because price has reversed, place this new order on the opposite side, where price is now headed towards (in this situation you will have both a buy stop and sell stop order set up for the same lot size). I recommend that if you have a $10,000 (or €) account, your first position be .1 lots. If you have a $20,000 account, I would recommend trading two different pairs (ex: if you go long on EURUSD, also go long on USDJPY, that way you're sure to see half of your open positions hit a take profit, and this will therefore divide your overall risk in half). I would go so far as to trade 3 different pairs if you're trading a $30,000 account, and only increase the weight of your first positions as you have more capital to trade with.

I like this strategy because your overall position sizes (and therefore risk) end up being lower: Original sure-fire strategy position sizes: .1, .3, .6, 1.2, etc. This strategy's position sizes: .1, .2, .4, .8, etc. Here is a downloadable and printable pdf of the sure-fire hedging strategy. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake. by David Rodriguez , Quantitative Strategist. Big data analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment. Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox. But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk. Your demo is preloaded with ?10,000 virtual funds , which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets. We'll email you login details shortly. You are subscribed to David Rodriguez. You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive. An error occurred submitting your form.

Please try again later. We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Here is what we believe to be the number one mistake FX traders make. W hy do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article , we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately . Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money? The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain.

Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain. And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average ProfitLoss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair.

Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades . Let’s use EURUSD as an example. We see that EURUSD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBPUSD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBPUSD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time.

They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain. Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out . Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run . It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing. What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing.

Choice B is a flat 450 point gain. Which would you choose? 50% chance to Win 1000. 50% chance to Win 0. Expect to win $500 over time. Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again. 50% chance to Lose 1000. 50% chance to Lose 0. Expect to lose $500 over time. In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue.

Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory. Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains . It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500 , but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—50 0 dollars lost are equivalent to 50 0 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure. Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall.

Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely? When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “ rewardrisk ratio ”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your rewardrisk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 rewardrisk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio . That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower rewardrisk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher rewardrisk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the rewardrisk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series.

Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper rewardrisk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading. The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning . This will allow you to use the proper rewardrisk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management” . Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work?

Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. T raders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a riskreward ratio of 1:1 or higher. Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances. Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance.

You can apply the same rewardrisk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 312014 to 3312015. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: The Traits of Successful Traders. This article is a part of our Traits of Successful Traders series. Over the past several months, The DailyFX Research team has been closely studying the trading trends of traders via a major FX broker. We have gone through an enormous number of statistics and anonymized trading records in order to answer one question: “What separates successful traders from unsuccessful traders?”. We have been using this unique resource to distill some of the “best practices” that successful traders follow, such as the best time of day, appropriate use of leverage, the best currency pairs, and more. Stay tuned for the next article in the Traits of Successful Traders Series.

Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX. com. Sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list to receive future e-mail updates on the Traits of Successful Traders series and other reports. Contact and follow David via Twitter: twitter. comDRodriguezFX. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. 5 Ways to Win More Often Trading Forex. 10302015 9:00 am EST. Focus: FOREX. Currency traders who are struggling to find their way or suffering too many losses can try these five steps to turn their trading around, says Johnathon Fox of DailyForex. com and Forex School Online. For many forex traders (or any type of trader, for that matter), long gone are the hopes of making millions of dollars overnight, and all they wish to do now is stop losing money and begin to turn their trading accounts around. There are many mistakes that traders make that contribute to getting themselves into this situation, and this article is going to cover the top five things traders can do to turn their accounts and performance around! Pick a Trading Method and Perfect It. Traders who come to forex in most cases are looking to make a lot of money and do so very fast.

To achieve this, they begin to chase the "Holy Grail" that will make them all their riches. Instead of looking for a method that will give them gradual success, they search for the latest fancy indicator that will do all the work for them. I am here to tell you that we all would be rich if this were possible! If you are serious about making money in the forex markets, it is time you get rid of this mentality and settled into learning a method that you can use for the long term. One method that can be used to trade the markets successfully is price action trading, which has been around for a long time and will be around for a long time to come. Price action trading will not stop working every time the market dynamics change. Price action trading involves learning to read the raw price on a chart and focusing on high-probability price patterns that repeat themselves. Price action is a very simple method that most traders can get their heads around with a little help and the correct education. Once a trader has picked the method that best suits their trading style, they need to give up on the idea of the "Holy Grail" and begin perfecting their chosen trading method. Chopping and changing trading methods only leads to confusion and frustration. The only way to perfect your chosen trading method is to commit to it, and practice until you have perfected it! Learn to Trade on Higher Time Frames. Many traders have the misconception that the lower the time-frame chart, the more chances they have to make trades, and thus, make money. While it is true that traders will get more signals on lower-time-frame charts, it is also true the lower the time frame, the more false signals there are and the harder it becomes to make money. Traders can begin to turn their trading around by taking just this point on alone!

The higher-time-frame charts are where most trading should be done for beginning traders. One of the best reasons the daily chart is a lot more powerful than a lower-time-frame chart such as the one-hour chart is because of the time that goes into making the signals. An example of this is an inside bar. If we see an inside bar on the one-hour chart, we know that price could not break out of the previous candle's range for one hour. If, however, we see an inside bar on the daily chart, it means price has gone through all trading sessions including the UK and US sessions and has been unable to break out of the previous day's range. Obviously, a candle with 24 hours worth of information is telling us a lot more than a candle made up of only one hour, and because of this extra time that goes into making the daily chart signals compared to the lower time frames, the signals are much more reliable and powerful. Stop Watching Charts All Day Long. Once a trader has committed to only trading the larger time frames such as on the daily chart, it is now time to get rid of one of the most widespread trading mistakes there is: Watching the charts all day. This trading habit is a very serious mistake that many traders make. If traders were to watch the charts all day and not do anything, this would be fine, but from watching the charts all day, traders start to make mistakes like: Entering trades when they shouldn't Taking trades off when they shouldn't Taking profits when they shouldn't Tightening stops when they shouldn't. When a trader has committed to trading the daily charts only, they only need to look at their charts once a day. That is it! When the market closes for the day, the trader should switch their charts on and look for possible trade set-ups. If there is a trade, they should set their entry, stops and targets. If there is no trade, they need to turn off their computer and walk away and do something else! There is nothing more they can do. The market has to move, and it will do the same thing whether you are watching it or not. Walk away and let the market do its thing. Only Trade with Money You Can Afford to Lose.

In the forex market, scared money is lost money. A trader who is placing trades with scared money may as well just give it to a charity. The reason this is the case is because when a trader is fearful, they will make trading decisions that reflect that. The trader who is playing with scared money will commit all types of psychological trading mistakes that will ensure that money is lost. The only money that should ever be risked in the forex markets is money that a trader can afford to lose. Traders should never risk money they need for their kids or to put food on the table! This rule is important. Some people will be saying "But I only have $100 for a trading account." This is fine.

Many brokers offer mini and micro accounts that will let you trade while risking only a few dollars at a time and continue to use correct money management. Over time, you can keep adding money to your account from savings to build it up. Work on Your Mind. One of the most overlooked areas in trading is the psychology side. Many traders concentrate day in and day out solely on their trading method or system. This is why many people fail in the forex business, and as long as they don't work on their mind, they will continue to fail. Many mistakes a trader makes are based on how they approach and think about the markets and their trading. Trading is a battle that is very much waged in the mind. If a trader doesn't have the correct mindset and way of thinking, forex will forever be an uphill battle. Traders need to focus on this aspect of trading and begin to learn all they can. Reading books and blogs from professional traders is a great way to pick up on skills you can implement into your own trading. A great book that will help you begin to think about the forex markets in the correct manner is Trading in the Zone , by Mark Douglas. I highly recommend buying this book and applying all the principles it contains. There is an excessive amount of traffic coming from your Region. What may be causing this? You are attempting to access this page via a Webhosting Account Scripted access to public pages is not allowed. You are accessing the web via a proxy.

If you are using a public proxy, you may wish to switch to another or disable it. If you believe your ISP is using a transparent proxy, please let us know. You or someone on your network is running a bot to crawl our site. Please contact your Network Administrator if you believe this to be the case. We just need you to confirm that you are a person and not a robot. Why You Don’t Have to Win Every Single Battle. It’s easy to get caught up in daily defeats, isn’t it? Your forex trading strategy isn’t working. You’re losing money hand over fist even though you know your system works over the long-term and you’re following all the rules. If you aren’t careful, you could let it discourage you, allowing negative thoughts like giving up, feeling like a failure, or thinking you’ll never make it as a trader creep into your psyche. Unfortunately, it does happen to us all, so when you are discouraged by everyday setbacks, it’s crucial to keep your eye on the big picture: you could be losing a battle here and there, but you may end up winning the war. Many traders make the mistake of letting their feelings of worth be determined by everyday trading results. You think, “If I make profits today, and every day this week, I’m doing well.

But if I end up losing most days, then I’m doing horrible!” This kind of thinking is based on how people view compensation for a conventional 9-to-5 job. You put in your 40 hours, do a good job, and you get paid handsomely. You feel good for working diligently and productively for the week. But when you trade forex, you will not always receive sufficient compensation for your efforts–that’s just how the game works. When you don’t reach the profit goals you set, you can feel as if you didn’t get paid enough for your efforts. It’s going to be tough, but as a trader, you must avoid thinking in these conventional terms. An extremely productive week of trade journaling or backtesting may produce ZERO profits. When you are trying to achieve a certain level of income in a given timeframe, you are setting “performance goals” that you may not be able to achieve. A better kind of goal to set is a “learning goal.

” You may not be able to achieve a particular performance goal during a given week; that is, you may not always be able to achieve a particular dollar amount, but you can achieve a particular learning goal. Every day you trade, you gain valuable experience regarding how you approach the markets. You see various setups and learn how they can or can’t lead to a profitable trade. Don’t undervalue these learning experiences. Every day, you are achieving learning goals. Your daily efforts may not directly lead to forex profits, but indirectly, they do add to your wealth of experiences. You may only win a battle here and there, but when you add up the battles you do win, over the long haul, you end up mastering the markets, and winning the war in the end. If you merely focus on how much money you make as a trader, and use a conventional payment schedule, you’ll work your butt off but fail to get the conventionally defined “paycheck” you expect, and feel ripped off. But if you define your paycheck in unconventional terms as the amount of experience you gained, you’ll feel rewarded for making a series of trades, profitable or not, and feel you’ve accomplished something. And regardless of how much money you actually make, you will have indeed accomplished something: You will have further honed your trading skills. In the grand scheme of things, winning minor battles and learning from your defeats will help you win the war. You’ll master the markets and become a winning, profitable seasoned forex trader. Why Do Many Forex Traders Lose Money? Here is the Number 1 Mistake. by David Rodriguez , Quantitative Strategist. Big data analysis, algorithmic trading, and retail trader sentiment. Your Forecast Is Headed to Your Inbox.

But don't just read our analysis - put it to the rest. Your forecast comes with a free demo account from our provider, IG, so you can try out trading with zero risk. Your demo is preloaded with ?10,000 virtual funds , which you can use to trade over 10,000 live global markets. We'll email you login details shortly. You are subscribed to David Rodriguez. You can manage you subscriptions by following the link in the footer of each email you will receive. An error occurred submitting your form. Please try again later. We look through 43 million real trades to measure trader performance Majority of trades are successful and yet traders are losing Here is what we believe to be the number one mistake FX traders make. W hy do major currency moves bring increased trader losses? To find out, the DailyFX research team has looked through over 40 million real trades placed via a major FX broker's trading platforms. In this article , we look at the biggest mistake that forex traders make, and a way to trade appropriately . Why Does the Average Forex Trader Lose Money?

The average forex trader loses money, which is in itself a very discouraging fact. But why? Put simply, human psychology makes trading difficult. We looked at over 43 million real trades placed on a major FX broker's trading servers from Q2, 2014 – Q1, 2015 and came to some very interesting conclusions. The first is encouraging: traders make money most of the time as over 50% of trades are closed out at a gain. Percent of All Trades Closed Out at a Gain and Loss per Currency Pair. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. The above chart shows results of over 43 million trades conducted by these traders worldwide from Q2, 2014 through Q1, 2015 across the 15 most popular currency pairs. The blue bar shows the percentage of trades that ended with a profit for the trader. Red shows the percentage of trades that ended in loss. For example, the Euro saw an impressive 61% of all trades closed out at a gain.

And indeed every single one of these instruments saw the majority of traders turned a profit more than 50 percent of the time. If traders were right more than half of the time, why did most lose money? Average ProfitLoss per Winning and Losing Trades per Currency Pair. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. The above chart says it all. In blue, it shows the average number of pips traders earned on profitable trades. In red, it shows the average number of pips lost in losing trades. We can now clearly see why traders lose money despite being right more than half the time. They lose more money on their losing trades than they make on their winning trades . Let’s use EURUSD as an example.

We see that EURUSD trades were closed out at a profit 61% of the time, but the average losing trade was worth 83 pips while the average winner was only 48 pips. Traders were correct more than half the time, but they lost over 70% more on their losing trades as they won on winning trades. The track record for the volatile GBPUSD pair was even worse. Traders captured profits on 59% of all GBPUSD trades. Yet they overall lost money as they turned an average 43 pip profit on each winner and lost 83 pips on losing trades. What gives? Identifying that there is a problem is important in itself, but we’ll need to understand the reasons behind it in order to look for a solution. Cut Losses, Let Profits Run – Why is this So Difficult to Do? In our study we saw that traders were very good at identifying profitable trading opportunities--closing trades out at a profit over 50 percent of the time. They utlimately lost, however, as the average loss far outweighed the gain.

Open nearly any book on trading and the advice is the same: cut your losses early and let your profits run. When your trade goes against you, close it out . Take the small loss and then try again later, if appropriate. It is better to take a small loss early than a big loss later. If a trade is in your favor, let it run . It is often tempting to close out at a small gain in order to protect profits, but oftentimes we see that patience can result in greater gains. But if the solution is so simple, why is the issue so common? The simple answer: human nature. In fact this is not at all limited to trading. To further illustrate the point we draw on significant findings in psychology. A Simple Wager – Understanding Human Behavior Towards Winning and Losing. What if I offered you a simple wager on a coin flip? You have two choices. Choice A means you have a 50% chance of winning 1000 dollars and 50% chance of winning nothing. Choice B is a flat 450 point gain.

Which would you choose? 50% chance to Win 1000. 50% chance to Win 0. Expect to win $500 over time. Over time it makes sense to take Choice A—the expected gain of $500 is greater than the fixed $450. Yet many studies have shown that most people will consistently choose Choice B. Let’s flip the wager and run it again. 50% chance to Lose 1000. 50% chance to Lose 0. Expect to lose $500 over time. In this case we can expect to lose less money via Choice B, but in fact studies have shown that the majority of people will pick choice A every single time. Here we see the issue. Most people avoid risk when it comes to taking profits but then actively seek it if it means avoiding a loss. Why? Losses Hurt Psychologically far more than Gains Give Pleasure – Prospect Theory.

Nobel prize-winning clinical psychologist Daniel Kahneman based on his research on decision making. His work wasn’t on trading per se but clear implications for trade management and is quite relevant to FX trading. His study on Prospect Theory attempted to model and predict choices people would make between scenarios involving known risks and rewards. The findings showed something remarkably simple yet profound: most people took more pain from losses than pleasure from gains . It feels “good enough” to make $450 versus $500 , but accepting a $500 loss hurts too much and many are willing to gamble that the trade turns around. This doesn’t make any sense from a trading perspective—50 0 dollars lost are equivalent to 50 0 dollars gained; one is not worth more than the other. Why should we then act so differently? Prospect Theory: Losses Typically Hurt Far More than Gains Give Pleasure. Taking a purely rational approach to markets means treating a 50 point gain as morally equivalent to a 50 point loss. Unfortunately our data on real trader behavior suggests that the majority can’t do this. We need to think more systematically to improve our chances at success. Avoid the Common Pitfall. Avoiding the loss-making problem described above is very simple in theory: gain more in each winning trade than you give back in each losing trade. But how might we do it concretely?

When trading, always follow one simple rule: always seek a bigger reward than the loss you are risking. This is a valuable piece of advice that can be found in almost every trading book. Typically, this is called a “ rewardrisk ratio ”. If you risk losing the same number of pips as you hope to gain, then your rewardrisk ratio is 1-to-1 (also written 1:1). If you target a profit of 80 pips with a risk of 40 pips, then you have a 2:1 rewardrisk ratio. If you follow this simple rule, you can be right on the direction of only half of your trades and still make money because you will earn more profits on your winning trades than losses on your losing trades. What ratio should you use? It depends on the type of trade you are making. We recommend to always use a minimum 1:1 ratio . That way, if you are right only half the time, you will at least break even. Certain strategies and trading techniques tend to produce high winning percentages as we saw with real trader data. If this is the case, it is possible to use a lower rewardrisk ratio—such as between 1:1 and 2:1. For lower probability trading, a higher rewardrisk ratio is recommended, such as 2:1, 3:1, or even 4:1. Remember, the higher the rewardrisk ratio you choose, the less often you need to correctly predict market direction in order to make money trading. We will discuss different trading techniques in further detail in subsequent installments of this series. Stick to Your Plan: Use Stops and Limits. Once you have a trading plan that uses a proper rewardrisk ratio, the next challenge is to stick to the plan. Remember, it is natural for humans to want to hold on to losses and take profits early, but it makes for bad trading. We must overcome this natural tendency and remove our emotions from trading.

The best way to do this is to set up your trade with Stop-Loss and Limit orders from the beginning . This will allow you to use the proper rewardrisk ratio (1:1 or higher) from the outset, and to stick to it. Once you set them, don’t touch them (One exception: you can move your stop in your favor to lock in profits as the market moves in your favor). Managing your risk in this way is a part of what many traders call “money management” . Many of the most successful forex traders are right about the market’s direction less than half the time. Since they practice good money management, they cut their losses quickly and let their profits run, so they are still profitable in their overall trading. Does Using 1:1 Reward to Risk Really Work? Our data certainly suggest it does. We use our data on our top 15 currency pairs to determine which trader accounts closed their Average Gain at least as large as their Average Loss—or a minimum Reward:Risk of 1:1. Were traders ultimately profitable if they stuck to this rule? Past performance is not indicative of future results, but the results certainly support it. Our data shows that 53 percent of all accounts which operated on at least a 1:1 Reward to Risk ratio turned a net-profit in our 12-month sample period. Those under 1:1? A mere 17 percent. T raders who adhered to this rule were 3 times more likely to turn a profit over the course of these 12 months—a substantial difference. Data source: Derived from data from a major FX broker* across 15 most traded currency pairs from 312014 to 3312015. Game Plan: What Strategy Can I Use? Trade forex with stops and limits set to a riskreward ratio of 1:1 or higher. Whenever you place a trade, make sure that you use a stop-loss order. Always make sure that your profit target is at least as far away from your entry price as your stop-loss is. You can certainly set your price target higher, and probably should aim for at least 1:1 regardless of strategy, potentially 2:1 or more in certain circumstances.

Then you can choose the market direction correctly only half the time and still make money in your account. The actual distance you place your stops and limits will depend on the conditions in the market at the time, such as volatility, currency pair, and where you see support and resistance. You can apply the same rewardrisk ratio to any trade. If you have a stop level 40 pips away from entry, you should have a profit target 40 pips or more away. If you have a stop level 500 pips away, your profit target should be at least 500 pips away. We will use this as a basis for further study on real trader behavior as we look to uncover the traits of successful traders. *Data is drawn from FXCM Inc. accounts excluding Eligible Contract Participants, Clearing Accounts, Hong Kong, and Japan subsidiaries from 312014 to 3312015. View the next articles in the Traits of Successful Series: The Traits of Successful Traders. This article is a part of our Traits of Successful Traders series. Over the past several months, The DailyFX Research team has been closely studying the trading trends of traders via a major FX broker. We have gone through an enormous number of statistics and anonymized trading records in order to answer one question: “What separates successful traders from unsuccessful traders?

”. We have been using this unique resource to distill some of the “best practices” that successful traders follow, such as the best time of day, appropriate use of leverage, the best currency pairs, and more. Stay tuned for the next article in the Traits of Successful Traders Series. Analysis prepared and written by David Rodriguez, Quantitative Strategist for DailyFX. com. Sign up to David’s e-mail distribution list to receive future e-mail updates on the Traits of Successful Traders series and other reports. Contact and follow David via Twitter: twitter. comDRodriguezFX. DailyFX provides forex news and technical analysis on the trends that influence the global currency markets. Making money in forex is easy if you know how the bankers trade! How to make money in forex? I’m often mystified in my educational forex articles why so many traders struggle to make consistent money out of forex trading. The answer has more to do with what they don’t know than what they do know. After working in investment banks for 20 years many of which were as a Chief trader its second knowledge how to extract cash out of the market.

It all comes down to understanding how the traders at the banks execute and make trading decisions. Why? Bank traders only make up 5% of the total number of forex traders with speculators accounting for the other 95%, but more importantly that 5% of bank traders account for 92% of all forex volumes. So if you don’t know how they trade, then you’re simply guessing. First let me bust the first myth about forex traders in institutions. They don’t sit there all day banging away making proprietary trading decisions. Most of the time they are simply transacting on behalf of the banks customers. It’s commonly referred to as ‘clearing the flow”. They may perform a few thousand trades a day but none of these are for their proprietary book. How do banks trade forex? They actually only perform 2-3 trades a week for their own trading account. These trades are the ones they are judged on at the end of the year to see whether they deserve an additional bonus or not. So as you can see traders at the banks don’t sit there all day trading randomly ‘scalping’ trying to make their budgets. They are extremely methodical in their approach and make trading decisions when everything lines up, technically and fundamentally. That’s what you need to know! As far as technical analysis goes it is extremely simple.

I am often dumbfounded by our client’s charts when they first come to us. They are often littered with mathematical indicators which not only have significant 3-4 hour time lags but also often contradict each other. Trading with these indicators and this approach is the quickest way to rip through your trading capital. Bank trader’s charts look nothing like this. In fact they are completely the opposite. All they want to know is where the key critical levels. Don’t forget these indicators were developed to try and predict where the market is going. The bank traders are the market . If you understand how they trade then you don’t need any indicators. They make split second decisions based on key technical and fundamental changes.

Understanding their technical analysis is the first step to becoming a successful trader. You’ll be trading with the market not against it. What it all comes down to is simple support and resistance. No clutter, nothing to alter their trading decisions. Simple, effective and highlighting the key levels. I’m not going to go into the ins and outs of where they actually enter the market, but let me say this: it’s not where you think. The trendlines are simply there to indicate key support and resistance. Entering the market is another discussion all together. How to make money in forex? The key aspect to their trading decisions is derived from the economic fundamentals. The fundamental backdrop of the market consists of three major areas and that’s why it’s hard to pin point currency direction sometimes. When you have the political situation countering the central bank announcements currency direction is somewhat disjointed.

But when there are no political issues and formulated central bank policy acting in accordance with the economic data, that’s when we get pure currency direction and the big trends emerge. This is what bank traders wait for. The fundamental aspect of the market is extremely complex and it can take years to master them. This is a major area we concentrate on during our two day workshop to ensure traders have a complete understanding of each area. If you understand them you are set up for long term success as this is where currency direction comes from. There is a lot of money to be made from trading the economic data releases . The key to trading the releases is twofold. First, having an excellent understanding of the fundamentals and how the various releases impact the market. Secondly, knowing how to execute the trades with precision and without hesitation. If you can get a control of this aspect of trading and have the confidence to trade the events then you’re truly set up to make huge capital advances. After all it is these economic releases which really direct the currencies. These are the same economic releases that central banks formulate policy around. So by following the releases and trading them you not only know what’s going on with regards central bank policy but you’ll also be building your capital at the same time.

Now to be truly successful you need an extremely comprehensive capital management system that not only protects you during periods of uncertainty but also pushes you forward to experience capital expansion. This is your entire business plan so it’s important you get this down pat first. Our stringent capital management system perfectly encompasses your risk to rewards ratios, capital controls as well as our trade plan – entry and exits. This way when you’re trading, all your concerned about is finding entry levels. Having such a system in place will also alleviate the stresses of trading and allow you to go about your day without spending endless hours monitoring the market. I can tell you most traders at banks spend most of the day wandering around the dealing room chatting to other traders or going to lunches with brokers. Rarely are they in front of the computer for more than a few hours. You should be taking the same approach. If you understand the technical and fundamental aspects of the market and have a comprehensive professional capital management system then you can. From here it just takes a simple understanding of the key strategies to apply and where to apply them and away you go. Trust me you will experience more capital growth then you ever have before if you know how the bank traders trade. Many traders have tried to replicate their methods and I’ve seen numerous books on “how to beat the bankers”. But the point is you don’t want to be beating them but joining them. That way you will be trading with the market not against it. So to conclude let me say this: There are no miraculous secrets to trading forex. There are no special indicators or robots that can mimic the dynamic forex market. You simply need to understand how the major players (bankers) trade and analyse the market. If you get these aspects right then your well on the way to success.

Information on these pages contains forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Markets and instruments profiled on this page are for informational purposes only and should not in any way come across as a recommendation to buy or sell in these securities. You should do your own thorough research before making any investment decisions. FXStreet does not in any way guarantee that this information is free from mistakes, errors, or material misstatements. It also does not guarantee that this information is of a timely nature. Investing in Forex involves a great deal of risk, including the loss of all or a portion of your investment, as well as emotional distress. All risks, losses and costs associated with investing, including total loss of principal, are your responsibility.



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